قياس أثر الفساد على تفاوت توزيع الدخل فى مصر باستخدام نموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ واختبار السببية للفترة (1990-2017)

عبدالواحد, حسنى

doi:10.21608/aja.2021.115787

قياس أثر الفساد على تفاوت توزيع الدخل فى مصر باستخدام نموذج متجه تصحيح الخطأ واختبار السببية للفترة (1990-2017)

نوع المستند : بحوث باللغة العربیة

المؤلف

حسنى عبدالواحد

مدرس الاقتصاد، المعهد العالى للعلوم الإدارية – 6 أکتوبر، جمهورية مصر العربية

10.21608/aja.2021.115787

المستخلص

تهدف الدراسة لقياس أثـر الفساد على تفاوت توزبع الدخل فى مصر للفتـرة (1990-2017) وکذلک تحديد اتجاه العلاقة بينهما ، وذلک لوجود خلاف بيـن الدراسات حول اتجاه هذه العلاقة. بالتالى تتمثل فرضية الدراسة فى وجود علاقة فى الأجليـن الطويل والقصيـر بيـن الفساد وتوزيع الدخل فى مصر وأن العلاقة بينهما وحيدة الاتجاه من الفساد لتوزيع الدخل. واعتمدت الدراسة فى اختبار الفرضية السابقة على نموذج Johansen للتکامل المشتـرک لاختبار وجود علاقة فى الأجل الطويل نظراً لأن جميع المتغيـرات تبيـن أنها غيـر مستقرة عند مستوياتها ومستقرة عند الفروق الأولى I(1)، ثم قياس العلاقات فى الأجل القصيـر باستخدام نموذج متجه تصـحيح الخطأ VECM، وأخيـراً اختبار السببية بطريقة Granger Causality Test وطريقة السببية لنموذج متجه الانحدار الذاتـى VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests لتحديد اتجاه العلاقة بيـن الفساد وتفاوت توزيع الدخل فى مصر. وقد أثبتت النتائج صـحة فرضية الدراسة بشکل تام.
The study aims at measuring the impact of corruption on the income inequality in Egypt during the period 1990-2017 , as well as determining the direction of relationship between them. There is a difference between the studies on this relationship and whether it is unidirectional causality from corruption to the income inequality or from the income inequality to corruption or it is a mutual relationship which is known as the trap of corruption - income inequality. The study examines the basic hypothesis of a long-term and short-term relationship between corruption and income inequality in Egypt and that their relationship is unidirectional causality from corruption to income inequality. The model included the most independent variables affecting the income inequality expressed in a GINI coefficient, corruption, GDP per capita, secondary school enrollment rate, capital growth rate, population growth rate and finally the degree of economic openness. The study was based on the Johansen model of the co-integration of long-term relationship measurement, since all variables were found to be nonstationary at their levels and stationary at the first difference I(1), then measuring the short run relationships using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) , And finally the Granger Causality Test and VAR Granger Causality / Block Exogeneity Wald Tests to determine the direction of the relationship between corruption and income inequality in Egypt. The results proved the validity of the hypothesis of the study, where it was proven that there are long-term and short-term relationships between corruption and income inequality. According to the value of error correction term (-0.751), the correction period is about one year and a quarter. That is, if there is a shock in the short term that keeps the variables away from equilibrium, the variables return to equilibrium within about a year and a quarter. Corruption has also been shown to cause income inequality. The income inequality does not cause corruption, ie, relationship is unidirectional causality and there is no corruption- income inequality trap in Egypt.

الكلمات الرئيسية

الموضوعات الرئيسية

الاقتصاد

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