أثـر تحويلات العمالة المهاجرة على النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن: دراسة قياسية للفتـرة 2000 – 2018 باستخدام منهجية التکامل المشتـرک

نوع المستند : بحوث باللغة العربیة

المؤلفون

1 جامعة الإمام محمد بن سعود الإسلامية، المملکة العربية السعودية

2 جامعة إربد الأهلية، المملکة الأردنية الهاشمية

المستخلص

تشکل تحويلات العامليـن بالخارج أحد أهم مصادر التدفقات النقدية الخارجية لکثيـر من دول العالم. ويعود السبب في ذلک إلى ارتفاع قيمتها المضافة مقارنًا بالمصادر الأخرى کالمنح والمساعدات، والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر. لذلک تحاول هذه الدراسة إلى قياس الأثـر الاقتصادي الذي أحدثته تحويلات الأردنيون العاملون بالخارج على النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن خلال الفتـرة 2000 – 2018، مع الأخذ بالاعتبار الأثـر المقارن بالاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر، ومؤشرات التنمية البشرية والانفتاح التجاري. تم تصميم نموذج قياسي يقوم على اللوغاريتم الطبيعي للناتج المحلي الإجمالي کمقياس للنمو الاقتصادي، بينما تمثلت المتغيـرات المستقلة في تحويلات العامليـن کنسبة من GDP، والاستثمار الأجنبي کنسبة من GDP أيضاً، بجانب مؤشرات التنمية البشرية والانفتاح التجاري. تم تقديـر مؤشرات النموذج القياس باستخدام منهجية ARDL. توصلت الدراسة إلى مجموعة من النتائج المهمة والتي أظهرت عدم تأثيـر کلاً من تحويلات العمالة الأردنية بالخارج، والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر على النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن. في حيـن انحسر تأثيـر مؤشر التنمية البشرية على الأجل القصيـر فقط. وفيما يتعلق بالانفتاح التجاري فهو المتغيـر الوحيد الذي أثبت تأثيـره القوي على النمو الاقتصادي في الأردن على الأجليـن القصيـر والطويل. في الأخيـر، قدمت الدراسة مجموعة من التوصيات التي يعتقد بأهميتها ودورها في توجيه السياسات الاقتصادية المحلية نحو استغلال التدفقات المالية إلى الأردن، وکيفية تحسيـن مساهمتها في الاقتصاد المحلي.

الكلمات الرئيسية


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