Forecasting Higher Education Enrollment In Egypt (2012-2016)

Gadallah, Yasser M.

doi:10.21608/aja.2018.19543

Forecasting Higher Education Enrollment In Egypt (2012-2016)

نوع المستند : بحوث باللغة الإنجلیزیة

المؤلف

Yasser M. Gadallah

Economics, Director of Chinese-Egyptian Research Center, University of Helwan and Expert In Strategic Planning Unit Ministry of Higher Education, Egypt

10.21608/aja.2018.19543

المستخلص

The objective of this study is to predict higher education enrollment in Egypt. Therefore, the paper provides a brief description of forecasting methods and its applications. Moreover, it reviews the available literature on the main determinants of higher education enrollment. To predict enrollment rate in Egypt for the period (2012-2016), it utilizes semi-log function and regression model using the available data from Ministry of Higher Education for the period (1991-2011). The main recommendation of this study is to encourage the private sector to involve in delivering the educational services through joining in partnerships with the government to establish new institutions or providing the private sector with the required licenses to establish new educational institutions based on the criteria which adopted by National Body for Quality and Accreditation.

الموضوعات الرئيسية

الاقتصاد

المراجع

- Allen, P. G. and R. Fildes. (2001). “Econometric Forecasting”, In: J. S. Armstrong (Ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 303-362.

- Armstrong J. (Ed.). (2001) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Kluwer Academic Publishers.

- Armstrong, J. S. (2001c). “Evaluating Forecasting Methods,” In: J. S. Armstrong (Ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 365-382.

- Armstrong, J. S. and F. Collopy. (1993). “Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time Series Extrapolation”, Journal of Forecasting, 12, 103-115.

- Armstrong, J. S. and F. Collopy. (1998). “Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research”, In: G. Wright and P. Goodwin (Eds.), Forecasting with Judgment. Chichester: John Wiley.

- Armstrong, J. S.; M. Adya F. and F. Collopy. (2001) “Rule-based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation”, In: J. S. Armstrong (Ed.) Principles of Forecasting. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 259-282.

- Armstrong, J. S. and C. Green Kesten. (2006). “Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods”, A Chapter for the Forthcoming Book Strategic Marketing Management: A Business Process Approach, edited by Luiz Moutinho and Geoff Southern.

- Campbell, Robert and Barry Siegel. (1967) “The Demand for Higher Education in the United States, 1919-1964”, American Economic Review, 57, pp. 482-494.

- Carbone, R. (1999). “THCMS Methodology for Evaluating the Forecasting Systems”, Unpublished, July.

- Centra, John A. (1980). "College Enrollment in the 1980s: Projections and Possibilities," Journal of Higher Education, (51(l),1980), pp. 19-38.

- El Sebai, N. M. (2006) “The Egyptian Higher Education System: Towards Better Quality in the Future”, Journal of Futures Studies, November 2006, 11(2), pp.75 – 92.

- Hight, John. (1975). “The Demand for Higher Education in the U.S. 1927-72: The Public and Private Institutions”, Journal of Human Resources, 10, pp.512-520.

- Hopkins, Thomas D. (1974). Higher Education Enrollment Demand, Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Yale University.

- Keogh, Eamonn and Shruti Kasetty. (2002). “On the Need for Time Series Data Mining Benchmarks: A Survey and Empirical Demonstration”, Proceedings of the Eighth ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining.

- McPherson, Michael S. (1974). The Demand for Public and Private Higher Education, Unpublished Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Chicago.

- Ministry of Higher Education, Master Plan for Higher Education in Egypt (2007-2022). 2007.

- Peltzman, Sam. (1972) “The Effect of Government Subsidies-in-Kind on Private Expenditures: The Case of Higher Education”, Journal of Political Economy, 81, January/February, pp. l-27.

- World Bank. (2002). Arab Republic of Egypt Higher Education Enhancement Project (HEEP). Washington, D.C.: World Bank.