تأثيـر الانفتاح التجاري على انبعاثات الکربون في الولايات المتحدة والصيـن ومصر The Impact of Trade Openness on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in USA, China and Egypt

نوع المستند : بحوث باللغة العربیة

المؤلفون

1 کلية إدارة الأعمال والتسويق الدولي، جامعة سيناء

2 کلية التجارة، جامعة عيـن شمس

المستخلص

تحاول هذه الورقة قياس تأثيـر کل من الانفتاح التجاري، والتنمية الاقتصادية، والاستثمار الأجنبـي المباشر، واستهلاک الطاقة، والتحضر على البيئة باستخدام بيانات السلاسل الزمنية Time Series خلال الفتـرة 1982-2013 في حالات دول الولايات المتحدة، والصيـن، ومصر، وذلک من خلال اتباع أسلوب Engle-Granger Two-Step Model لاختبار العلاقة طويلة الأجل بيـن المتغيـرات والعلاقة الديناميکية في الأجل القصيـر، من خلال تطبيق نموذج تصـحيح الخطأ (Error Corection Method - ECM). وقد أوضـحت النتائج أن السبب الرئيس في خفض انبعاثات الکربون في الولايات المتحدة (دولة متقدمة) هو صافي التجارة الدولية. أما بالنسبة للصيـن ومصر- من الدول النامية- فنلاحظ أنهما ملاذ للتلوث، حيث إن صافي التجارة والاستثمار الأجنبـي يؤديان إلى زيادة الانبعاثات؛ مما يوضـح تسرب الکربون من الولايات المتحدة إلى دول أخـرى، وکذلک تدعم النتائج فرضية منحنى «کوزنتس» البيئي.
Climate Change is one of the most important issues facing our planet, the concerns are growing under the global trading system. trade benefits may generate considerable pressure on the environment because of more trade and economic activity would lead to an increase in energy consumption. Carbon dioxide is the main source of greenhouse effect and captures great attention in the recent years, are most of the emissions comes from fossil fuels consumption.
Recently, China has shown significant growth in emissions, accounting for 28% of global emissions in 2013. It also became the world’s first exporter of industrial products, and the world’s biggest emitter of emissions, while the emissions of USA decreased from 5702 (Million tonnes) in 2005 to 5119 (Mt) in 2013. That leads to raise the questionif the USA emissions have been decreased as a result of implementions the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, or as a result of transfering carbon-intensive activities to developing countries, and conversion to import rather than export these products.
This paper is trying to measure the impact of trade openness, economic development, foreign direct investment, energy consumption and urbanization on environment,using Time -Series data over the period 1982-2013 in the United States, China and Egypt. The Engle -Granger Two-Step Model is used to test the long-runand short-run relationships between the variables by applying the Error-Correction Model (ECM). The results showed that the main reason for reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the United States is net trade,while in China and Egypt are a pollution haven of direty products as net trade and foreign direct investment lead to increase emissions. In addition, The results support environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis.

الكلمات الرئيسية

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